I’m pretty sure that the sentiment amongst most of us as we approach the end of 2020 is “finally!”

Has there been a year in recent memory that you wished was over more than the year we just endured? Have you ever wished more for New Year’s Eve to be over and done with?

If I never hear the words pandemic, unprecedented and Zoom again, it will be too soon.

With vaccines on the way, it looks as if a semblance of normality may appear as soon as spring, so as we turn the page the economic recovery plumbing and HVAC contractors are hoping for will no doubt depend on the evolution of the pandemic.

Recent medical developments are encouraging: Widespread distribution of a vaccine starting in the summer of 2021 could enable the Canadian economy to grow by 4.5 per cent or more, according to the Business Development of Canada (BDC). A later deployment would limit gains to 4 per cent. In any case, recovery to pre-pandemic activity levels will have to wait until 2022.

The BDC says Canada’s 2021 economic outlook is similar to that of other developed countries: After the largest economic contraction since 1945—a dip estimated at 5.5 per cent of GDP—the economy should grow sufficiently to largely offset the losses of 2020.

Strong consumption and a rebound in exports will give the Canadian economy a boost. Bringing forward government investment projects should also provide a tailwind to Canadian economic growth.

Conversely, the postponement of business investments and a slowdown in the housing market will limit the extent of the recovery.

What does this mean for small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs)?

The “buy local” mindset is gaining popularity and could be a growth opportunity for Canadian businesses. However, the protectionist trend that is gaining ground in many countries may pose a threat to exporters.

On the bright side, the BDC predicts investment in technology, remote work and online sales will continue to be important trends for the progression and growth of Canadian SMEs in 2021.

Here’s to a return to normal in 2021.