It is unlikely that Canadians will be heading to the polls in a federal election until fall 2025. The only reason there would be a snap election would be if the NDP stopped supporting the current minority Liberal government. But it would be unlikely as the NDP would get blamed, reports Rob LeForte, founder of First Lake Solutions.
This was just one of the updates that audience members heard while attending the Canadian Institute of Plumbing & Heating’s (CIPH) and the Mechanical Contractors Association of Canada’s (MCAC) joint webinar presentation on government relations. The webinar took place on Sept. 7 and ran for one hour, starting at 1 p.m. (EST).
There were two questions that the presentation aimed to answer — where the federal political parties stand and where Canadians stand in relation to political parties and hot topics.
As LeForte reports, the likelihood of a snap election is slim. But if there was an election called, the Conservatives would likely walk away with a majority. Current polling also shows that the Conservatives have a 67 per cent of winning a majority and a 31 per cent chance of a minority. The Liberal’s chances of maintaining power sits at around two per cent, reports LeForte.
This will likely mean that the NDP, Liberals, Green Party, and Bloc will soon ramp up negative campaigning in preparation for the 2025 scheduled election. “Liberals needed a coalition to win at the start of the summer. Now they need a miracle,” explains LeForte.
Justin Trudeau’s approval remains high. But he can be his own worst enemy at times. His many years of politics are both a blessing and a curse as almost all Canadians have an opinion about him. The same cannot be said for his political rivals.
According to LeForte, Poilievre is starting to catch on with the youth and is very strong amongst male voters. In addition, he likes to repeat the “Canada is broken” sentiment, which seems to be popular amongst his followers. He remains weak in Quebec, but that doesn’t mean that the Conservatives should focus on their campaign efforts on Quebec, explains LeForte. “I would say that if I were his team, I would be more concerned about his favourability in Ontario. Trudeau is still more favourable in Ontario than Poilievre,” explains LeForte.
The House of Commons has a total of 338 seats; Ontario has 121, Quebec has 78, Alberta has 34, British Columbia has 42, Saskatchewan has 14, Manitoba has 14, Newfoundland and Labrador has 7, New Brunswick has 10, P.E.I. has 4, Nova Scotia has 11, and the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut each have one seat.
Jagmeet Singh, leader of the federal NDP, will likely look to leverage some of the ‘softer’ Liberal support to get more out of the agreement with the Liberals. “Singh’s own leadership would be in jeopardy if this agreement doesn’t create positive momentum for the NDP,” explains LeForte.
The Green Party continues to struggle at the federal level, “not only for relevance but in their operations as well as they aim to justify having co-leaders of the party,” shares LeForte. “Where they go and what they do will be very intriguing. I wouldn’t be surprised if they start making deals with the Liberals.”
It might not come as too much of a shock on what are considered the top issues for voters — the rising cost of living, housing affordability and accessibility, healthcare, the economy, climate change and the environment, inequality and poverty, crime and public safety, immigration, a lack of freedom in Canada, the threat posed by China and Russia, Indigenous reconciliation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Chinese election interference.
The good news for contractors, “Housing has captured the narratives.” Bad news for the Liberals, Poilievre has placed the blame on Trudeau. “You would think he would try to pivot, but he’s just taken it,” explains LeForte on how Trudeau has reacted to Poilievre’s criticism. “Instead, he has blamed municipalities.”
More housing investments are likely to come in the future, including more purpose-built rental towers and condominiums. According to LeForte, this would mean more stacked houses and less of the traditional“white picket fences” type of home. “I think the governments going to push for more units on smaller pieces of land.”