Toronto, ON — The start of the new school year didn’t bode well for Toronto, as the city received a failing grade when it came to meeting its housing targets. Specifically, Toronto was roughly 67 per cent behind the housing target set for it by the provincial government.
These findings come from a report conducted by the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON), which analyzed municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe across five categories related to housing starts and sales. The report was conducted over the first six months of 2025 and was then compared to the same period in the previous four years.
Thirty-four municipalities were graded, with 22 of them, including Toronto, receiving an F. Additionally, five municipalities received a D, and only seven received a C or higher. The highest-graded municipality was Brantford, with an A-plus.
The full grading list for the municipalities was as follows:
- Ajax (housing starts down 100 per cent) – F
- Aurora (down 40 per cent) – F
- Brampton (down 50 per cent) – F
- Caledon (down 44 per cent) – F
- East Gwillimbury (down 100 per cent) – F
- Georgina (down 60 per cent) – F
- Halton Hills (down 77 per cent) – F
- Markham (down 3 per cent) – D
- Milton (up 113 per cent) – A
- Mississauga (up 16 per cent) – D
- New Tecumseth (down 3 per cent) – C
- Newmarket (down 98 per cent) – F
- Oakville (down 39 per cent) – F
- Pickering (up 11 per cent) – C
- Richmond Hill (up 77 per cent) – B
- Toronto (down 58 per cent) – F
- Vaughan (down 95 per cent) – F
- Whitchurch-Stouffville (down 11 per cent) – F
- Barrie (down 65 per cent) – F
- Innisfil (down 91 per cent) – F
- Brantford (up 272 per cent)- A+
- Guelph (down 90 per cent) – F
- Burlington (up 87 per cent) – B
- Hamilton (down 65 per cent) – F
- Cambridge (down 26 per cent) – F
- Kitchener (down 16 per cent) – D
- Waterloo (down 75 per cent) – F
- Clarington (down 73 per cent) – F
- Oshawa (down 87 per cent) – F
- Whitby (down 74 per cent) – F
- Peterborough (down 92 per cent) – F
- Niagara Falls (down 5 per cent) – D
- St. Catharines (up 35 per cent) – C
- Welland (down 10 per cent) – D
Overall, the report highlighted how housing starts were a lagging indicator, “As the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) only considers a project to be started when the building’s foundation is fully complete,” states RESCON via its press release.
Specific numbers in the report indicate that, in the first six months of 2025, housing starts were down an average of 40 per cent in the 34 municipalities. Condo apartment starts over the first six months of 2025 were also down 54 per cent relative to 2021-24, while purpose-built rental starts were up eight per cent. The report adds that starts for everything other than apartments were down 42 per cent, “showing the weakness is not just confined to condos.”
“Across our 34 municipalities, pre-construction sales of condo apartments are down 89 per cent and pre-construction ground-oriented sales are down 70 per cent,” the report states. “This is a clear indication that Ontario’s housing situation will get worse before it gets better, and that market weakness is not isolated to the condo market.”
When it comes to Toronto, starts in the first six months of 2025 were down 58 per cent, and sales declined 91 per cent compared to the same period between 2021-24. This decline is estimated to have resulted in a loss of approximately 10,209 jobs.
The report also showed that the reduction in housing starts has significant economic ramifications. “On average, it takes 3.8 years of employment to build a ground-oriented home, and 1.5 years to build an apartment unit. The reduction in housing starts, over the first six months of the year, relative to 2021-24 averages, translates into 24,195 fewer person-years of employment.”
Richard Lyall, president of RESCON, added that, “The findings of this report are troubling and should set off the alarm bells for policymakers across all three levels of government.”